UPDATE FROM SRI LANKA:

[This was sent out as an email to people on the Commonway list; however, because of a technical problem, few actually received it…]

There is never a dull moment around this place. Ongoing war, student riots, the SAARC summit meetingA?a??A? I donA?a??a??t know where to begin.

Perhaps I should begin where every Sri Lankan who knows me starts: A?a??A?Obama!A?a??A? The worldA?a??a??s most popular man weaves his magic on this islandA?a??A? and he hasnA?a??a??t even been here. People I donA?a??a??t even know hear that IA?a??a??m an American and come up to me with the one question: A?a??A?Can he win?A?a??A?

Not, A?a??A?Is he a good man?A?a??A? or A?a??A?What are his views on foreign affairs?A?a??A?. From the worldA?a??a??s point of view, the US election is already over A?a??a?? they have their President. (We call the US President the A?a??A?Leader of the Free WorldA?a??A?. Ironic that the world canA?a??a??t vote for him or her.)

My answer? The election has nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans. That illusory division does not define what is going on with the A?a??A?Obama EffectA?a??A?. The November election pits two amazingly well-matched candidates against each other: The Past and The Future.

John McCain is a most worthy representative of The Past. He has all of the A?a??A?tested under fireA?a??A? credentials (and white hair) that you want in a candidate who represents AmericaA?a??a??s Past. In a time of fear and uncertainty, many people want a steady hand on the rudder and clear eye toward a safe harbor.

Barack Obama is the epitome of The Future. Someone who transcends all of the old alliances and political configurations (to the chagrin of those in his own party). Someone of the Internet Age. Someone who believes that AmericaA?a??a??s strength does not lie in her past, but her future. Someone who not only understands, but literally transcends race (to the chagrin of those in the old A?a??A?Civil RightsA?a??A? establishment). In a time of hope and rapid change, Obama has his eye A?a??a?? and his enthusiasm A?a??a?? set firmly in the future.

So, we get to witness John Kennedy duke it out with Ronald Reagan. Which one will win? It depends whether, on election day, American voters are more hopeful than fearful. (Perhaps I should characterize it as A?a??A?Voting by FearA?a??A? and A?a??A?Voting by HopeA?a??A?.)

People are motivated by BOTH fear and hope. (Remember: inclusivity means seeing things from both/all sides.) After the people of Czechoslovakia defeated the Soviet Union in their nonviolent A?a??A?Velvet RevolutionA?a??A?, at election time, they almost returned the Communists to power! Why? In times of uncertainty, people look for the familiar A?a??a?? even if it means familiarly oppressive and authoritarian. Then, rather than rely on themselves, they can complain about A?a??A?the governmentA?a??A? again. People go back to abusive governments like women go back to abusive husbands.

[Which one SHOULD win? In keeping with current IRS regulations and in light of CommonwayA?a??a??s nonprofit status, I have no stated official position.]

SAARC CONFERENCE

If you were President of a country ravaged by war, high inflation, political and social instability, what would you do? HAVE A PARTY!!Invite seven of your buddies (and their huge entourages) over for the weekend. Block off the capital city, throw in 30,000 soldiers for security, and youA?a??a??ve got the A?a??A?South Asian Association for Regional CooperationA?a??A? Summit held the first weekend of my arrival in Sri Lanka. The government spent tens of millions of dollars on a meeting that could have been accomplished with a conference call.

The economy here is REALLY bad. Even I have noticed the 30% inflationary pinch at the grocery store. Thousands of university students have rioted, because, after their years of study, there are simply NO JOBS. Right above my head as I write this, there are hundreds of young men sitting in SarvodayaA?a??a??s meeting hallsA?a??A? learning Korean. Sri LankaA?a??a??s biggest export isnA?a??a??t teaA?a??A? itA?a??a??s the young men and women of the country, sent overseas for menial and degrading jobs digging ditches and scrubbing toilets, in places like Saudi Arabia and South Korea. (The hundreds of young men chanting in Korean above me do NOT have jobs waiting for them in Korea: they are learning Korean in these classes (government-run, not Sarvodaya) for the right to APPLY for the limited Korean jobs, after taking and passing language tests.) For those who donA?a??a??t get jobs, they sit and waitA?a??A? or go to Colombo and riot.

If I had been President, I would have told my fellow heads of state: A?a??A?As much as I would like to host you, my people just cannot afford this unnecessary expense right now. Give us ten years A?a??a?? weA?a??a??ll plow the money we would waste hosting SAARC into peace and prosperity for the entire island. Then, ten years from now, we would like to throw you a HECK of a party!A?a??A?

But, thatA?a??a??s not what heads of state do. Big airports, dams, Olympics and summits A?a??a?? this is the stuff that feeds an ego as big as a country. (I left out the biggest ego-feeders: wars and shiny new weapons.) What do the A?a??A?peopleA?a??A? get out of all this?Nationalistic bragging rightsA?a??A? until the check falls due.

A WAR UPDATE

The war in the North is going full blazes. A staggering 125,000 refugees in the North alone. IA?a??a??ve heard heart-breaking stories of people selling all of their possessions just to stay moving ahead of the latest battle zone, of tens of thousands of men, women and children sleeping under trees and finding food wherever they can.It is a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions. The aid organizations (including Sarvodaya) cannot adequately respond to the challenge, in light of the current government disfavor of charitable organizations (they claim that the helping organizations gave too much help to the Tigers).

Even reading between the propaganda-filled lines, the Government is currently playing the winning hand. Actavis promethazine price President Rajapakse and the military head, General Fonseka, are both confidently predicting the demise of the Tamil Tigers A?a??A?as a conventional military forceA?a??A? by the end of the year. From a strictly military point of view, the campaign is impressive. At the rate they are going, it might be even sooner before the Government flag flies over Killinnochchi, the Tigers de facto capital for over two decades.

But, IA?a??a??ve learned over the years not to count the Tigers out too prematurely. They have managed to pull some amazing rabbits out of their hatsA?a??A? IA?a??a??m not taking any bets on this outcome.

The key to the GovernmentA?a??a??s boasting is the phrase A?a??A?as a conventional military forceA?a??A?. With the GovernmentA?a??a??s huge advantage in numbers and equipment, itA?a??a??s a wonder that the Tigers were EVER a conventional military force, able to mount A?a??a?? and win A?a??a?? set military engagements involving artillery and other heavy weaponry, along with sophisticated logistics and their own A?a??A?air forceA?a??A? of ultra-light aircraft, a first in the insurgency business.

Yes, the Government can A?a??A?winA?a??A? against the Tigers conventional forces, just as the US government knew that it could defeat Saddam HusseinA?a??a??s army. But, as we are learning in Iraq, defeating the conventional forces is a LONG way from A?a??A?winningA?a??A? the war.

When Killinnochchi falls, the Tigers turn into a true A?a??A?insurgentA?a??A? force: everywhere, nowhere and invisible. While the Sri Lankan flag may once again fly over Killinnochchi, the levels of violence will escalate. While the Sri Lankan army gets bogged down trying to provide services to administer a hostile population where they donA?a??a??t speak the language (does any of this sound familiar?), the Tigers will be free to mount an insurgency A?a??a?? a true guerilla war. The Government may find itself missing the days when it actually knew where the Tigers wereA?a??A?

I keep saying this: it is impossible to A?a??A?winA?a??A? an insurgent war. No one has been able to do it. NO ONE. (Right now, in Iraq, the US forces are literally paying the insurgents not to attack us. This unbelievably short-term strategy will end just as soon as the checks stop.) The only way to end such a war is through a nonviolent, negotiated settlement. (To which the Sri Lanka Government replies, A?a??A?We will negotiate with them A?a??a?? as soon as we defeat them.A?a??A? Stay tuned to see how that logic train plays outA?a??A?)

SARVODAYA A?a??a?? THE NEXT 50 YEARS

This year is the 50^th anniversary of the birth of the Sarvodaya movement here in Sri Lanka. The organization has been involved in a year-long process of celebrating, introspection and envisioning the next 50 years.

As difficult was conditions were 50 years ago, the world has changed in some amazing and frightening ways. We are being called to A?a??A?think anew and act anewA?a??A?. I have been involved in several major strategy sessions with SarvodayaA?a??a??s leadership, examining the path for Sarvodaya over the next 50 years of its operation. Stay tunedA?a??A?